Gas for the 2026/27 Winter: Will There Be Enough, and What to Do with the Surplus
The “Gas Traders of Ukraine” Association has prepared an analytical assessment of the gas balance for the 2026/27 heating season. Key points:
A RECORD-BREAKING START TO THE SEASON
Underground storage facilities (including buffer gas) hold over 15.6 billion m³ of gas. This is the highest level in the past 5 years and 1 billion m³ more than the government’s target of 14.6 billion m³.
FORECAST FOR RESERVES AS OF APRIL 2027
Our baseline forecast for UGS reserves as of April 1, 2027, is approximately 9.7 billion m³—about 2.7 billion m³ more than what we consider the safe minimum for emerging from winter, which is 7.0 billion m³
RISKS
This year, the enemy has attacked gas production more times than in all of 2025 combined. In the worst-case scenario—a cold winter coupled with a loss of ~30% of production—UGS reserves could fall to 5.5 billion m³. In that case, without additional imports, there would be a shortfall of ~1.5 billion m³ of gas needed to meet the safe minimum for emerging from winter. It is technically possible to cover this shortfall with imports, and it would cost approximately 1.2 billion euros. (see chart)
SURPLUS IN UKRAINE
In the summer of 2026, consumption fell by 20–23% compared to the previous year, primarily due to the impact on industry. A gas surplus emerged in the commercial sector. At the same time, exports of Ukrainian-produced gas remain completely banned.
EUROPE IS FACING A SHORTAGE
The TTF price is around 76 €/MWh, and EU storage facilities are only ~72% full. For Ukrainian producers, this presents a window of opportunity: foreign currency revenue, funds for recovery from attacks, and new drilling.
The Association’s Position on Exporting Surplus Gas:
We support the controlled export of surplus gas after the peak of winter has passed (starting in February 2027).
A mandatory condition is that storage levels remain above the reference levels. A reasonable volume for this season is up to 0.5 billion m³.
Exports of surplus gas are conducted through the exchange, with a quota based on monthly production and the government’s right to immediately halt exports.
We consider schemes such as “give gas now—get it back in February–March” to be too risky for energy security.
Surplus gas should be used to restore production rather than kept locked up in the domestic market. At the same time, the country’s energy security remains the top priority.
ATTENTION! When using the AGTU’s analytical assessment of the gas balance, a reference to the Association is mandatory!
We will provide a full analysis, including a monthly balance and scenarios, to partners and Association members upon request.